AOL Refuses to Raise Offer For TradeDoubler While ValueClick Surges

Forbes is reporting Time Warner Inc. (TWX) unit AOL is refusing to raise its $900 million offer for Sweden’s TradeDoubler AB (a provider of online marketing and sales solutions). The firm’s largest shareholder, the Alecta pension fund, holds a 10% stake and is rejecting the deal according to a Wall Street Journal report.

AOL’s bid is at a 10% premium to TradeDoubler’s closing price at the end of last week. Things are heating up as AOL said its bid is supported by the Swedish firm’s management. Looks like it’s time to go to work drumming up support among Tradedoubler’s other owners as Swedish takeover rules require the acquisition of two-thirds of a company’s stock for overall control.

AOL’s deal is conditional on approval from over 90% of TradeDoubler shareholders. Uh-oh.

In related news, Valueclick (VCLK) is surging on the news over speculation on AOL’s interest in Commission Junction, a unit with which it (as I see it) has a strained relationship. Not to mention Commission Junction’s faltering relationship with what could be its biggest client, eBay (EBAY).

Via ThoughtShapers reader and financial journalist, Daniel Mark Harrison.

The snub by Alecta, which owns a 10.01% stake, is expected to attract higher offers by rival firms, possibly Google (GOOG), Yahoo! (YHOO) or Value Click, which are interested in the high growth of European ad revenue from search.

Although AOL announced Tuesday it would not raise its bid, it will probably come in with a higher offer, says Mikael Laseen, an equity research analyst for Kaupthing AS, Iceland’s largest bank.

“We heard from TradeDoubler in December that they were talking to several buyers, one of which was obviously AOL” says Laseen. “The statement from AOL that they are reluctant to raise the bid is not unexpected; I think they are likely to raise the bid but it’s difficult to say by how much.”

Related Prediction: Zanox will acquire Commission Junction in 2007 and finally have its market. They’ll pay silly money for it (a la Rakuten‘s nearly 10X EBITA Linkshare acquisition).

Comments

[Michael]

This quirk in Swedish law invites hedge funds in on announcement of an M&A. they buy the stock and then hold out for a higher price looking to make a quick 3-5%. Same thing happened on CHKP's recent acquisition and they still have not closed it. AOL could be in for a bidding surprise.

[aaron.phister]

Ha, looks like Alecta got greedy but AOL wouldn't blink. TradeDoubler has lost it's top talent, hasn't innovated in over a year, and has a stagnant platform. Commission Junction is just part of the ValueClick acquisition hodge-podge, U.S. focused, and not an integrated offering.

AOL should instead be looking at other top European players like zanox, which it could probably get for less than half of the TradeDoubler's bid. Much more momentum and growth there and understand original managment is still on board and expanding company aggressively internationally.