Zecco To Offer Free Stock Trading - Threat to Online Brokers [View article]
Wells Fargo has been offering free trades to some of its customers for a while (see Wells Fargo aims at Schwab, TD Waterhouse, Ameritrade, E*Trade).
It doesn't seem to have had much effect yet. Perhaps once trades get to a certain low price, other factors may become more important: website functionality, execution, spread, and integration with banking.
As SBC & BellSouth Play Fiber Catch-Up With Verizon, Which Stocks Win? (BLS, VZ, SBC, ADCT, ALA, MOT, TLAB) [View article]
Sam, I'm really not sure about your contention that the RBOCs are winners here. Isn't this really a defensive move -- and a very expensive one at that? What kind of return on their investment from FTTH do you think they'll get? Arguably, the total cost of the TV + Internet Access + Voice bundle is falling, and this will just lead to more competition with the cable companies. The RBOCs will spend a ton on FTTx but will find their revenues still decline. The only winners I can see are the equipment vendors. I'm short all the RBOC stocks with shorts or puts.
How ETF Investing Has Changed in the Last Three Years [View article]
I totally agree with your point, Herb: the optimal rebalancing strategy is to rebalance based on deviations from target asset allocation, not periodic rebalancing. I mentioned the latter in this post because the issue for do-it-yourself investors is often not what is optimal but rather what is easy and doable.
And the key question for those who charge an asset-based fee for managed ETF accounts is: will the investor end up doing better AFTER FEES with a professionally managed account using optimal rebalancing versus a self-managed account with periodic rebalancing.
Hollywood Media's Hollywood.com Relaunches with Podcasts, Blogs and Google Ads (HOLL, GOOG) [View article]
On the podcasts: you can't actually subscribe to podcasts of individual channels, such as just movie reviews. The POD button took me to a single subscription on iTunes that subscribed me to all the podcasts (including, eg. celebrity interviews) in one shot. That stinks.
Hollywood Media's Hollywood.com Relaunches with Podcasts, Blogs and Google Ads (HOLL, GOOG) [View article]
Initial reactions (I'm using Safari): (1) IMDB uses the full width of my screen, whereas Hollywood.com uses only a fairly narrow center column; (2) IMDB has larger type size than Hollywood.com (this may be different for other browsers), so it's easier to read. (3) I really like the movie calendar on Hollywood.com (shows you when new movies are opening). I couldn't find that feature on IMDB. (4) I really like the Podcast feature. You click on the POD button next to a podcast title, and it opens iTunes for you with the podcast ready to subscribe to.
Are We in a Cyclical Bull or Cyclical Bear Market? [View article]
<blockquote>"Alm... every participant in the annual Businessweek survey that predicts the coming year for the market gets it wrong, so how is the same crew going to get it right for a period of many years?"</blockquote...
I'm not sure that's correct. It's arguably easier to predict the market's performance over a ten year period than over a one year period, as John Hussman and Jeremy Grantham often say. The reason? Over a one year period there's more volatility in sentiment and earnings, but over a ten year period the factors that determine the stock market's level (such as earnings growth) tend to revert to their long run growth rates.
Google Ad Click-Through Rates Rise From 18.5% to 19.3%, Citigroup Raises Estimates (GOOG) [View article]
Did Google really only add a third ad to its search results? Look at this - there seems to be an entire column of ads: Google search for "Real estate agent NY"
The New Yahoo Mail is Far Superior to Gmail (GOOG, YHOO) [View article]
I agree with the comment about folders. It's surprising that Walter Mossberg wouldn't recognize that it's not just Google that's moving away from folders to tagging plus search. Microsoft is planning that for its next OS, Apple has already implemented it, and tagging services like Delicious are growing rapidly.
Dislocation Between US and Foreign Markets? (ETFs: EWY, QQQQ) [View article]
Yes, this could be about currency issues. If the market is worried about inflation, that means that the real interest rate on the dollar isn't rising despite the fact that nominal rates are rising, so rising rates won't support the dollar. And the increased Federal spending after the hurricanes will further raise the budget deficit, which also increases the risk of inflation. One reaction to those risks is to increase allocation to foreign equities versus US equities.
The key question is whether the sell-side ratings reflect money still sitting on the sidelines or whether so much buy-side cash has already moved into the stock that the sell-side analysts are merely a lagging indicator of sentiment changes that have already happened.
What interests me here is that the sell-side is generally bad at guaging investor sentiment. Most sell-side initiation of coverage reports don't even attempt to assess the current sentiment in a stock, and often present a thesis that is already 'priced-in" as though it's new information. Looking only at other sell-side analysts' ratings seems to be a very limited sentiment guage.
Totally agree with you that the sell-side has been late on the stock and is still predominantly negative. But the key question is whether that is a valid sentiment indicator. The chart and recent performance suggest that the buy side views the stock very differently, and that the sell-side is just lagging in raising estimates and ratings.
Clear and Present Danger for Owners of Leveraged Closed-End Muni Funds [View article]
Two questions:
(1) Is there a short opportunity here, or is the liquidity issue a problem for shorting leveraged closed-end muni funds? If these funds can be shorted, can you suggest some specific funds to short?
(2) The article suggests that liquidity issues will lead to a buying opportunity when or if the funds get hit. For example, "This limited liquidity could cause severe price depression in the event of high selling volume." Have there historically been liquidity issues with muni bond closed-end funds that have led to real buying opportunities?
TheStreet.com Closes Its Institutional Research Business; Will It Be Sold Soon? (TSCM) [View article]
Many of the points you make are probably behind the run-up in the stock. In particular, you're right about TSCM being on the block; that it's being "dressed-up" for the sale; and that the closure of IRG reduces the company's losses and makes it a more attractive acquisition candidate.
However, TSCM faces similar problems and challenges to CNET, which I'm also short. Both are in the proprietary content business. Both are facing an explosion of competition due to the decreased cost of web publishing and the proliferation of blogs. Both of them have questionable growth in their core businesses. (If you click on the categories for CNET and TSCM you'll see a bunch of posts that discuss these issues for both stocks.) CNET's claims about its page views and unique users contradict comScore's numbers that show a decline in its key sites, and TSCM has a subscription business that at best is growing at lackluster rates.
The question then becomes: how attractive is a company with little growth in its core business and increasing competition to a potential acquirer? And what exactly are the synergies that would make these firms worth more when combined with another company than as stand alone entities? The answer to these questions is unclear in my mind.
TSCM, for example, is heavily dependent on Cramer for brand, yet he is an independent agent re. Mad Money. It's user base is predominantly trading-oriented, yet many people complain of poor quality in its free content. Any company that wanted TSCM for its web content business would have to buy the financial subscription business, which doesn't fit well with many potential acquirers' businesses.
That then leaves the final question: valuation. Both CNET and TSCM are not cheap stocks on many metrics. If the acquisition story doesn't play out, both could take a real hit. And remember, TSCM has been on the block a long time already. Will the closure of IRG trigger a sale, or are its problems deeper than that?
How to Predict Google’s Next Product (GOOG) [View article]
I agree with many of your points here, particularly the non-revolutionary aspects of Gmail, Sidebar and - well, let's not talk about Web Accelerator. But perhaps Google demands more credit for its attempts at interconnectivity for Google Talk.
I'm a Mac user, and iChat is elegantly built in to OS-X and integrated with the email client and address book. Most of my hedge fund colleagues use AIM, which is compatible with iChat. But some people who I chat with use MSN IM and Skype. As a result, I now have to use two clients - iChat and Skype. It's a real pain, particularly since Skype has inferior IM capability to iChat. The prospect of a single client that allows me to voice chat and IM anyone on AIM, MSN, iChat and Skype is indeed alluring.
I'm also baffled by Yahoo. Yahoo seems to leave its key products relatively unchanged until Google comes along and improves on them. Think about web email and the miserly amount of storage Yahoo offered until Google raised the stakes. And Yahoo Finance is basically a 5 year old product, which Google shook up by allowing Google searches of stock tickers - a far faster way of pulling up a stock quote and chart than clicking down three levels into Yahoo Finance.
Seen in that competitive context, Nivi might have more of a point than his hyperbole suggests...
Zecco To Offer Free Stock Trading - Threat to Online Brokers [View article]
It doesn't seem to have had much effect yet. Perhaps once trades get to a certain low price, other factors may become more important: website functionality, execution, spread, and integration with banking.
As SBC & BellSouth Play Fiber Catch-Up With Verizon, Which Stocks Win? (BLS, VZ, SBC, ADCT, ALA, MOT, TLAB) [View article]
Evaluating EWL, the iShares Switzerland Index ETF [View article]
Are there any closed-end funds that cover Switzerland, and if so how do they compare to EWL?
How ETF Investing Has Changed in the Last Three Years [View article]
And the key question for those who charge an asset-based fee for managed ETF accounts is: will the investor end up doing better AFTER FEES with a professionally managed account using optimal rebalancing versus a self-managed account with periodic rebalancing.
Hollywood Media's Hollywood.com Relaunches with Podcasts, Blogs and Google Ads (HOLL, GOOG) [View article]
Hollywood Media's Hollywood.com Relaunches with Podcasts, Blogs and Google Ads (HOLL, GOOG) [View article]
(1) IMDB uses the full width of my screen, whereas Hollywood.com uses only a fairly narrow center column;
(2) IMDB has larger type size than Hollywood.com (this may be different for other browsers), so it's easier to read.
(3) I really like the movie calendar on Hollywood.com (shows you when new movies are opening). I couldn't find that feature on IMDB.
(4) I really like the Podcast feature. You click on the POD button next to a podcast title, and it opens iTunes for you with the podcast ready to subscribe to.
Are We in a Cyclical Bull or Cyclical Bear Market? [View article]
I'm not sure that's correct. It's arguably easier to predict the market's performance over a ten year period than over a one year period, as John Hussman and Jeremy Grantham often say. The reason? Over a one year period there's more volatility in sentiment and earnings, but over a ten year period the factors that determine the stock market's level (such as earnings growth) tend to revert to their long run growth rates.
Google Ad Click-Through Rates Rise From 18.5% to 19.3%, Citigroup Raises Estimates (GOOG) [View article]
Google search for "Real estate agent NY"
The New Yahoo Mail is Far Superior to Gmail (GOOG, YHOO) [View article]
Dislocation Between US and Foreign Markets? (ETFs: EWY, QQQQ) [View article]
Pacific Growth Raises Netflix Estimates - Belatedly? (NFLX) [View article]
What interests me here is that the sell-side is generally bad at guaging investor sentiment. Most sell-side initiation of coverage reports don't even attempt to assess the current sentiment in a stock, and often present a thesis that is already 'priced-in" as though it's new information. Looking only at other sell-side analysts' ratings seems to be a very limited sentiment guage.
Pacific Growth Raises Netflix Estimates - Belatedly? (NFLX) [View article]
Clear and Present Danger for Owners of Leveraged Closed-End Muni Funds [View article]
(1) Is there a short opportunity here, or is the liquidity issue a problem for shorting leveraged closed-end muni funds? If these funds can be shorted, can you suggest some specific funds to short?
(2) The article suggests that liquidity issues will lead to a buying opportunity when or if the funds get hit. For example, "This limited liquidity could cause severe price depression in the event of high selling volume." Have there historically been liquidity issues with muni bond closed-end funds that have led to real buying opportunities?
TheStreet.com Closes Its Institutional Research Business; Will It Be Sold Soon? (TSCM) [View article]
However, TSCM faces similar problems and challenges to CNET, which I'm also short. Both are in the proprietary content business. Both are facing an explosion of competition due to the decreased cost of web publishing and the proliferation of blogs. Both of them have questionable growth in their core businesses. (If you click on the categories for CNET and TSCM you'll see a bunch of posts that discuss these issues for both stocks.) CNET's claims about its page views and unique users contradict comScore's numbers that show a decline in its key sites, and TSCM has a subscription business that at best is growing at lackluster rates.
The question then becomes: how attractive is a company with little growth in its core business and increasing competition to a potential acquirer? And what exactly are the synergies that would make these firms worth more when combined with another company than as stand alone entities? The answer to these questions is unclear in my mind.
TSCM, for example, is heavily dependent on Cramer for brand, yet he is an independent agent re. Mad Money. It's user base is predominantly trading-oriented, yet many people complain of poor quality in its free content. Any company that wanted TSCM for its web content business would have to buy the financial subscription business, which doesn't fit well with many potential acquirers' businesses.
That then leaves the final question: valuation. Both CNET and TSCM are not cheap stocks on many metrics. If the acquisition story doesn't play out, both could take a real hit. And remember, TSCM has been on the block a long time already. Will the closure of IRG trigger a sale, or are its problems deeper than that?
How to Predict Google’s Next Product (GOOG) [View article]
I'm a Mac user, and iChat is elegantly built in to OS-X and integrated with the email client and address book. Most of my hedge fund colleagues use AIM, which is compatible with iChat. But some people who I chat with use MSN IM and Skype. As a result, I now have to use two clients - iChat and Skype. It's a real pain, particularly since Skype has inferior IM capability to iChat. The prospect of a single client that allows me to voice chat and IM anyone on AIM, MSN, iChat and Skype is indeed alluring.
I'm also baffled by Yahoo. Yahoo seems to leave its key products relatively unchanged until Google comes along and improves on them. Think about web email and the miserly amount of storage Yahoo offered until Google raised the stakes. And Yahoo Finance is basically a 5 year old product, which Google shook up by allowing Google searches of stock tickers - a far faster way of pulling up a stock quote and chart than clicking down three levels into Yahoo Finance.
Seen in that competitive context, Nivi might have more of a point than his hyperbole suggests...