Roger Nusbaum Positions for 2011: Sector Picking Less Important Than Country / Theme Selection [View article]
TWTFG, I have no idea what Roger's performance was in 2010. In the interview he made no claim about his past performance. However,
(1) If you're looking to follow a guru simply because his performance is amazing, then surely his reasoning shouldn't matter to you and you shouldn't be reading articles at all? You should just give him your money to manage. In contrast, shouldn't an article like this stand on its own merits? You should take what you agree with, and leave what you disagree with, irrespective of his past performance.
(2) I read Roger's articles because his focus is NOT on making predictions, but about risk management in the portfolios he manages. Managing risk is about making the right decisions based on the information available at the time, the probability of different outcomes, and the risks associated with them. Correct decisions can turn out badly; bad decisions can turn out well.
(3) The assumption behind your comment - that nobody has the right to discuss their approach to the market without a great track record - would stifle debate and the exchange of ideas on sites like Seeking Alpha. Sure, someone has more credibility if they have a great track record, but to say they have no right to express an opinion without a great track record? That seems extreme and threatening.
Individual Country ETF Portfolio for August [View article]
This might also be useful -- an overview of the main country ETFs that shows real time updated performance for today, 3 months, 1 year, and year to date, and allows you to sort the columns to see the leaders: seekingalpha.com/data/...
New Brazil Mid Cap ETF Indicates It's Time to Short [View article]
Yup, that makes sense: by providing access to a broader range of investors, ETFs may exacerbate money flows and asset price movements due to sentiment - particularly because the investment decisions of retail investors may be more affected by sentiment.
One thing to look at, consistent with your thesis: maybe the closure of ETFs is a strong indicator for a bottom in sentiment. Again, you'd have to look closely at the asset class and why the ETF was being shut down.
New Brazil Mid Cap ETF Indicates It's Time to Short [View article]
Brett,
I love the contrarian thought process here. However, some ETFs (such as the first gold ETFs) generated significant inflows into the underlying asset class, to the point that they raised the price of the underlying assets, which made the success of the ETFs self-fulfilling.
For your contrarian strategy to work, you need to be sure that the ETF doesn't fall into this category. Perhaps the key factor is whether there is significant pent-up demand for the asset class that the ETF will unleash.
My guess is that the new Brazil ETF doesn't fall into this category.
Single Country Emerging Markets ETFs, ETNs and Closed-End Funds [View article]
Update: We just added the new Northern Trust Israel ETF to the list, the NETS TA-25 Index Fund (TAV). Heather Bell writes about this ETF:
"TAV, however, is not the first of its kind. The iShares complex already offers the competing iShares MSCI Israel Capped Investable Market Index Fund (NYSE Arca: EIS), which charges 0.68%. In a departure for the NETS family, TAV is actually more expensive than its corresponding iShares ETF: It charges 0.70%. EIS was only launched in late March, so it hasn't had time to gain much of a foothold - Northern Trust may be looking to compete with it more on the basis of the underlying index than on price."
Single Country Emerging Markets ETFs, ETNs and Closed-End Funds [View article]
TW -- there aren't any emerging market currency ETFs or ETNs yet, but apparently they're in the works. You can view the currently available currency ETFs and ETNs here:
Roger Nusbaum Positions for 2011: Sector Picking Less Important Than Country / Theme Selection [View article]
(1) If you're looking to follow a guru simply because his performance is amazing, then surely his reasoning shouldn't matter to you and you shouldn't be reading articles at all? You should just give him your money to manage. In contrast, shouldn't an article like this stand on its own merits? You should take what you agree with, and leave what you disagree with, irrespective of his past performance.
(2) I read Roger's articles because his focus is NOT on making predictions, but about risk management in the portfolios he manages. Managing risk is about making the right decisions based on the information available at the time, the probability of different outcomes, and the risks associated with them. Correct decisions can turn out badly; bad decisions can turn out well.
(3) The assumption behind your comment - that nobody has the right to discuss their approach to the market without a great track record - would stifle debate and the exchange of ideas on sites like Seeking Alpha. Sure, someone has more credibility if they have a great track record, but to say they have no right to express an opinion without a great track record? That seems extreme and threatening.
Individual Country ETF Portfolio for August [View article]
seekingalpha.com/data/...
New Brazil Mid Cap ETF Indicates It's Time to Short [View article]
One thing to look at, consistent with your thesis: maybe the closure of ETFs is a strong indicator for a bottom in sentiment. Again, you'd have to look closely at the asset class and why the ETF was being shut down.
New Brazil Mid Cap ETF Indicates It's Time to Short [View article]
I love the contrarian thought process here. However, some ETFs (such as the first gold ETFs) generated significant inflows into the underlying asset class, to the point that they raised the price of the underlying assets, which made the success of the ETFs self-fulfilling.
For your contrarian strategy to work, you need to be sure that the ETF doesn't fall into this category. Perhaps the key factor is whether there is significant pent-up demand for the asset class that the ETF will unleash.
My guess is that the new Brazil ETF doesn't fall into this category.
Single Country Emerging Markets ETFs, ETNs and Closed-End Funds [View article]
"TAV, however, is not the first of its kind. The iShares complex already offers the competing iShares MSCI Israel Capped Investable Market Index Fund (NYSE Arca: EIS), which charges 0.68%. In a departure for the NETS family, TAV is actually more expensive than its corresponding iShares ETF: It charges 0.70%. EIS was only launched in late March, so it hasn't had time to gain much of a foothold - Northern Trust may be looking to compete with it more on the basis of the underlying index than on price."
Her full article is here:
seekingalpha.com/artic...
Single Country Emerging Markets ETFs, ETNs and Closed-End Funds [View article]
Single Country Emerging Markets ETFs, ETNs and Closed-End Funds [View article]
A Guide to Municipal Bond ETFs and Closed-End Funds [View article]
iShares S&P California Municipal Bond Fund (CMF)
iShares S&P New York Municipal Bond Fund (NYF)
(Thanks JohnB.)
Single Country Emerging Markets ETFs, ETNs and Closed-End Funds [View article]
A Guide to Municipal Bond ETFs and Closed-End Funds [View article]
seekingalpha.com/artic...
A Guide to Municipal Bond ETFs and Closed-End Funds [View article]
A Guide to Municipal Bond ETFs and Closed-End Funds [View article]
Single Country Emerging Markets ETFs, ETNs and Closed-End Funds [View article]
etf.seekingalpha.com/a...
Single Country Emerging Markets ETFs, ETNs and Closed-End Funds [View article]