David Jackson
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Roger Nusbaum Positions for 2011: Sector Picking Less Important Than Country / Theme Selection [View article]
(1) If you're looking to follow a guru simply because his performance is amazing, then surely his reasoning shouldn't matter to you and you shouldn't be reading articles at all? You should just give him your money to manage. In contrast, shouldn't an article like this stand on its own merits? You should take what you agree with, and leave what you disagree with, irrespective of his past performance.
(2) I read Roger's articles because his focus is NOT on making predictions, but about risk management in the portfolios he manages. Managing risk is about making the right decisions based on the information available at the time, the probability of different outcomes, and the risks associated with them. Correct decisions can turn out badly; bad decisions can turn out well.
(3) The assumption behind your comment - that nobody has the right to discuss their approach to the market without a great track record - would stifle debate and the exchange of ideas on sites like Seeking Alpha. Sure, someone has more credibility if they have a great track record, but to say they have no right to express an opinion without a great track record? That seems extreme and threatening.