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David Jackson

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  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    axelrod, when someone uses comments on SA to run ads, we delete their identity from the site. We rely on readers to hit the "report abuse" link so our editors find them quickly. The reason they appear as new commenters is because we normally get them by the time they post a few ads, so they have to start from zero again.
    Dec 28 03:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    On Apple's quarter: So much of this stock's performance is about optimism about future products and sales, rather than current sales and profits.

    Steve Jobs understands this well. His key quote last night: "We have amazing new products still to come this year." It's hard to sell or short a stock when you hear that sort of thing.

    Proof that smart investors are looking ahead to new products: the top search on the AAPL transcript is "iAd": seekingalpha.com/artic...
    Jul 21 08:25 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    IBM's in-line EPS + revenue miss is a big deal, because this is a company which is expert at smoothing EPS to meet consensus, but revenue is less easy to control. In other words, this is a significant miss.

    Given the size of IBM, this probably indicates that the tech sector is less strong than the recent results from INTC and ORCL suggested. Given the weakness in the stocks of other tech leaders (eg. GOOG), it makes me more cautious about tech overall.

    Note also that IBM will have a meaningful impact on the Dow today: seekingalpha.com/news/...
    Jul 20 09:39 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman Sachs and Mean Reversion [View article]
    Markos, I'm also not sure about reversion to the mean with individual stocks:

    >> Even with broad asset classes, there's risk that instruments don't trend together over time -- see seekingalpha.com/artic... .

    >> And individual stocks tend to exhibit trend-defying momentum -- see seekingalpha.com/artic...
    Dec 27 03:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bar Mitzvah Portfolio: Five Long Term Winners [View article]
    Scott, excellent and thought provoking article; thank you.

    I wonder whether the key factor in picking instruments for such a long term portfolio (I'm assuming you're not going to adjust the portfolio until it's time to liquidate it) is ensuring that your choices will maintain their competitive position 10 years from now. And while that might be the case for McDonalds, Sears and Goldman Sachs, I just don't have confidence that you can make that sort of call with tech stocks like Google and Apple.

    A litmus test:

    <b>What tech stocks would you have picked 10 years ago?</b> Perhaps Netscape or @Home. Remember them? Netscape was the clear leader in the browser market -- the future of the whole Internet -- and @Home was going to own the high speed infrastructure for the US internet. Definitely not Apple (look at the chart and what people were saying about it 10 years ago!) or Google (it wasn't public).

    How did the tech stocks subsequently perform that "felt" as good 10 years ago as Apple and Google do today? Not well. This illustrates the challenge facing people who try to pick individual tech stocks for long term portfolios, described in more detail in The Problem With Tech Stocks.

    Additionally, your portfolio is all US stocks. But GDP growth is currently and projected to be much faster in emerging markets than it is in the US. And with high US consumer debt, a chronic budget and current account deficit, it's not clear that exposure to the US consumer (Apple and Sears, and perhaps also McDonalds) in more than 2/5ths of the portfolio makes sense.

    The bottom line:
    - for a portfolio of this duration, I think you'd have much lower risk picking ETFs instead of individual stocks.
    - once you're picking ETFs, perhaps you should allocate more exposure to foreign stocks than you have here.

    David
    Apr 22 08:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NY Investment Bank Salaries = Vietnam's GDP [View article]
    Mark Faber actually made a different point: he said that he thought the income disparity in developed countries was a problem, not the disparity between developed and developing countries.

    I agree with your point though. All of us who have grown up with the amazing opportunities offered by the US or European countries have a lot to be grateful for. As Warren Buffett frequently says, his stock picking abilities would have been useless if he'd been born elsewhere.
    Feb 18 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NY Investment Bank Salaries = Vietnam's GDP [View article]
    Thanks for your comment, Dempse.
    Jan 14 05:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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