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Paulo Santos

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Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Estimating The Risk Of Peabody Energy Using The Altman Z-Score [View article]
    Yes, I believe it's overestimating the risk - but it has one useful angle, the relative values it produces seem a good way of gauging the relative risks.
    May 23 10:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Estimating The Risk Of Peabody Energy Using The Altman Z-Score [View article]
    I expect the same (that several coal companies will turn out large gainers in the years ahead).

    But it's scary.
    May 23 10:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Estimating The Risk Of Peabody Energy Using The Altman Z-Score [View article]
    No, I did ACI, ANR, BTU and PCX. I'll try doing at least CHK tomorrow, I'm curious.
    May 23 09:37 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Barriers Natural Gas Faces [View article]
    I too believe that there can be inertia with the rigs, there certainly was with them going away, and there will be with them coming back - plus dilling, etc, takes time. So if production undershoots, it can't be corrected in a hurry.
    May 23 09:10 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Signal Of Distress In The Electricity Sector [View article]
    Mark doesn't seem to grasp the concept of capital structure.
    May 23 08:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Estimating The Risk Of Peabody Energy Using The Altman Z-Score [View article]
    CHK might be interesting, yes. I'll try doing either CHK or both tomorrow.
    May 23 08:14 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Estimating The Risk Of Peabody Energy Using The Altman Z-Score [View article]
    I hope things aren't so bleak as I'm long here too. But the results surely surprised me.
    May 23 08:13 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Estimating The Risk Of Peabody Energy Using The Altman Z-Score [View article]
    Another conclusion that we can take from this, is that every coal company will strongly limit capex - so be very, very careful with those industries that supply the mining industry with equipment.
    May 23 07:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Estimating The Risk Of Peabody Energy Using The Altman Z-Score [View article]
    Yes, unfortunately that's what will happen. It does underscore that some have bankruptcy risk - and I do say that there are seemingly factors that are making for this result, namely the point in the cycle and the capital intensiveness, as well as the fact that the model ignores cash flow (and coal companies can get a lot of that, as long as they limit capex, due to the mines depleting/depreciating).
    May 23 07:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Estimating The Risk Of Peabody Energy Using The Altman Z-Score [View article]
    ACI, ANR and PCX all score lower. However, the relative positions seem to have some merit, PCX scores worse.
    May 23 07:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Estimating The Risk Of Peabody Energy Using The Altman Z-Score [View article]
    There are other articles on this particular series, I did this analysis on ACI, ANR, BTU and PCX, hence some references in the article to others (that aren't published yet). If someone is following the sector, just wait a while and they should all be published soon.
    May 23 07:06 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Signal Of Distress In The Electricity Sector [View article]
    One other thing - we had a very warm winter with a lot less snowfall. Now THAT might be positive for natural gas and coal, because it would indicate that the snow melts this year ought to be smaller than usual.

    I didn't study this enough, but it seems logical ... such might be a plus in due time.
    May 23 05:14 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Signal Of Distress In The Electricity Sector [View article]
    Mark, read what mjohn said in the comment before this one, and study how prices are formed. If hydro is selling gobs of power it might well displace other generators and produce incredibly cheap power - indeed, such low prices would seem to imply that for a while, hydro is actually the marginal producer. That is, it's probably supplying all energy in that market (would need to study the market in question to see if it's possible, but the low price seems to indicate it).
    May 23 05:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Amazon's AWS Can Attract Ugly Economics [View article]
    Yes, but that kind of cost is irrelevant (doesn't change the picture) for large businesses. Also yes, only large businesses will likely have a large advantage in taking the stable load to their own datacenters.
    May 23 02:40 PM | 0 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Barriers Natural Gas Faces [View article]
    Just being forced to cut capex will be enough for them to do a huge favor. That seems quite likely to happen.
    May 23 02:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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