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69 Comments

    • GE Looks Very Attractive Here [view article]
      I never thought GE was attractive in the high20s/low 30s. I simply like it in the low 20s... time will most certainly tell. Oct 06 10:24 AM
    • Why the Bailout Bill Alone Won't Solve the Credit Crisis [view article]
      ur 'simple' questions do not make sense in the context of the article...

      First you say the money will not work because there is no certainty that banks will start lending, even though it is in their best interest to start lending. But with out the back stop of the $700, the no lending part is a certainty. So ur first question becomes irrelavent.

      Second, the price the government pays is essencial for the gov. The market (via the stock prices, not of the actual assets) are already pricing these assets to basically zero.

      Also, if no one know, how in the world can you say it will not work?!?

      The main thing is to get enough of the bad assets out of the balance sheets, and let the system TRY to function normally. (Its better then doing nothing. If you do nothing it will cost much more than 700b in market cap.)       Oct 02 01:30 PM
    • The Calm Before the Storm? [view article]
      or maybe the markets are just waiting for monday. If the deal does not pass the equity market will collapse.

      the market was speaking last week, as it moved in the direction of political mood. It was up when their was confidence in the deal to get done, and futures tanked when talks broke down.

      I do not want a bs deal to go through, but the markets want something. We don't get a deal before market opens monday, the market stops waiting to pick a direction... it will choose down... big time.       Sep 26 03:36 PM
    • Hedge Funds Are Suffering Too [view article]
      the growth of the hegde fund industry will not be what it was... the golden age (or rather the age of idiots/imitators) is over. The investment banking model of promoting and supporting hege funds is dead, especially with much needed and deserved tighter regulations on leverage coming very quickly.

      Many of these guys I do not think will be able to raise serious institutional capital for a long long time.       Sep 23 01:35 PM
    • Retail Sales Report: Do Facts Mean Nothing? [view article]
      nice article. Sep 12 04:33 PM
    • Apple Investors: Fasten Your Seatbelts, Put On Helmets [view article]
      why can't u just say ur shorting AAPL because it is a proxy to the markets?

      instead u try to justify ur short by wordy arguments and connecting unconnectable dots... and the icing on the crappy cake is this statement... "traders know they can bring AAPL down to do their bidding, and so they will."       Sep 11 08:54 AM
    • Can Apple Withstand the Financial Sector's Fall? [view article]
      After reading the article I do not understand why your short AAPL? Is it based solely on the new iPod line? Is it because the Mac is taking too much market share? Is it because the iPhone 3G will mostlikely crush original expectations? Is it because AAPL is still a few steps a head of everyone? Is it because the new Macs have not be revealed yet? Is it because everything about the company is already known, despite their track record of beating those known expectations?

      I don't get it. Now if u were to say u are short because the bad chart and negative market sentiment, then I understand. But to sell a short position due to the fundamentals of the company... well that is just crap.       Sep 10 08:57 AM
    • Wake Up America, You’re Sinking [view article]
      another feel good story, within a bear market, from what appears to be an elitist touting the grass is greener over 'there'. awesome.

      I am an American that has his eyes open, and knows how to play the trends. I also travel to europe quite a bit, and see the realities over there too. Things are not good for the average person there.

      Within America... how about we look a few short years out, and the consequence of having an far more independent energy structure? what would that mean? How much money would that equate to staying in the US? What would that do to the dollar?

      every country has its problems.       Aug 08 09:36 AM
    • Visa: Positioned for Strong International Growth [view article]
      how is europe benefiting Visa? From V's 10-Q...

      "Visa Europe did not become a subsidiary of Visa Inc., but rather remained owned by its member financial institutions and entered into a set of contractual arrangements with Visa Inc... Our relationship with Visa Europe is governed by a framework agreement providing for exclusive, perpetual, non-transferable trademark and technology licenses within Visa Europe’s field of use and the provision of certain bilateral services."       Aug 05 11:47 AM
    • Is MasterCard Signaling Caution? [view article]
      "the company managed to beat expectations primarily by cutting back on the marketing expenses for the quarter"

      Some would consider this cost control, not weakness. But to each their own... i guess.

      So when is cheap enough? No doubt multiple contraction is present, but when has it contracted enough?

      I believe MA has beat every quarter, and now they will simply not going forward?

      The US is a saturated market much more leveraged to economic growth when dealing with transactions, yet even in this horrible consumer environment there was still some transaction growth.

      if anything, the fact that US transaction growth was even present in the horrible US consumer environment suggest the continued favorable paper-to-plastic trend.

      I agree multiple contraction needed to occur, I just do not agree with ur reasoning.       Jul 31 11:31 PM
    • Long Gold/Short Oil vs. Long Natural Gas/Short Oil [view article]
      I see ur thesis, but oil was in a speculative move the past few months. I am under the impression that oil will come down harder than Gold and Nat Gas, but all three commodities will fall in the interm.

      Slowing global economy and rising rates does not held Oil, Gold or Nat Gas. (unless one of them has a reason to diverge from the current economic situation)

      Jul 29 09:39 AM
    • The Oil Bubble Will Meet the Same Fate as Tech, Housing [view article]
      I don't know if Oil was as severe of a bubble as you claim because we can not dismiss the fact that supply constraints existed, and demand was really high. There are also obvious macro economic effects that support an elevated Crude price. But, with that said, I was Short Oil via USO puts from 138-145 as the fundamentals drifted from the price of Oil.

      Over the past few month we have been seeing a huge demand destruction, lack of physical buyers and emerging markets slowdown, yet Crude kept rising.

      We will be able to call oil's awesome move a bubble if...

      1. demand destruction continues
      2. new supplies come on line to meet future growth demand
      3. how quickly the US can adjust to alternative energy vehicles
      4. geo-political threats ease

      All of which will continue to create downward pressure to oil, and fortunately are in the cards, but we can't call oil tulips just yet.       Jul 18 09:08 AM
    • Revisiting the NYSE Euronext Trade [view article]
      NYX is seemingly a value play here, but any thoughts on the added regulatory aspect via the commodity trading that will come down?

      NYX is not alone in its drastic decline. All exchanges are seeing it, which tells me some major shifts (or fear of a major shift) are going to take place via how electronic commodity exchanges operate in the future. (ultimately leading to slower growth until there is a reacceleration within the confines of the new rules)       Jul 11 09:11 AM
    • Will Electric Power Cause the Next Price Shock? [view article]
      I do agree, electricity generating commodities are still a good play, but...

      1. You are completely discounting the effecient use of the grid via smartgrid tech/software.

      2. Wind and Solar will be continuous power sources. The highest cost here is the cap ex needed to build them. And if solar is truly decentralized, then house holds/cars can pump power into the grid. (generating credits/money)

      (i can go on and on about the positives, but i'll stop it at the most obvious and relevant.)

      The one thing i will say, even though i disagree somewhat with your economics, your article inadvertantly highlights the massive importance of the powr grid going forward.       Jul 01 10:17 AM
    • More on Technical Analysis [view article]
      "everything in technical analysis seems to work backwards"

      true, but your ignoring principals surrounding the historical data. Your ignoring the value in that data. We can not ignore the importance of regression analysis and Six Sigma simply because these principals primarily use historical data.

      Technical analysis, when used correctly, is unbelieveably valuable. Markets change, so how u use technical analysis must change as well. Just like Quant models must change with market conditions to be truly effective. (if you can not understand this, you will not understand the principals of TA, hence u will continue to bash it.)

      Stocks have no memory, but the prinipals of human behavior do. Markets are driven by people, and people have psychologies. The psychologies are driven by patterns, logical principals (ie scientific) and/or unknowing principals (ie the 'golden ratio' being so important far reaching applications of life, in engineering/science and markets).

      anything exposed to a market has a behavior because of the human element driving the market entity, and TA facilitates in understanding that behavior. ignoring it is careless.

      in any case... it works for me, and i list the trades (with charts) on my blog to back up the value in TA.       Jun 24 04:57 PM
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